ben noll twitter

Enter: the analogs. In the opposite phase, La Niña, cooler than average ocean temperatures encompass the same region. For Hudson Valley weather and school prediction updates in real time, visit: https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather or https://www.bennollweather.com/ The climate models are improving as advances in supercomputing have afforded dramatic increases in model resolution. In order to look toward the future, we must first look into the past. Using recent history as a guide, our first snow event should be 5 to 8 weeks away. This can be done for both temperature and precipitation. They can also bring short but sharp rounds of cold Canadian air with light, fluffy snow from systems called “Alberta clippers”. Follow along on Twitter for the very latest information and I’ll be in touch again soon! They can provide particularly useful predictions out to about three months (i.e. What we can conclude: the analog years, as a collective, favor a winter than isn’t as warm as last year but has a little more precipitation. It starts with identifying the climate drivers. Discover Ben's story in the Times Herald Record, the Hudson Valley Magazine, the New Paltz school newspaper, the Arlingtonian, at Warwick Valley High School, in the Monroe-Woodbury student news, or read up on Ben in the news. Based on the numbers, each year falls into a bin: mild and dry (upper left), mild and wet (upper right), cold and dry (bottom left), and cold and snowy (bottom right). Did you know that I do my Hudson Valley forecasts from an island in the Pacific? ), I wouldn't be shocked if the vibe was a not-so-bad winter overall. The winter snowfall total based on the preferred analogs is 39 inches — bang on average. Latest on T Ben Noll including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on NFL.com We can look back at the snow that fell during the analog years for an indication as to what might occur this year. During El Niño, rising air occurs further east, closer to Mexico and South America. By leveraging NOAA’s historical weather data, I sort the winter seasons since 1949 by temperature and precipitation (rain and snow). An equally weighted blend of the analogs and models would produce slightly less snow than normal this winter. I’ve got the very latest on the Sunday snow event for you, along with an outlook for the rest of the week. For that reason, I like to say “climate is the new weather”. Past years that have similar climate characteristics to the present are called analogs. During the analog years, Novembers tended to be quiet (0 to 2 inches) while December featured quite a range in snowfall, from as little as 1 inch (bust) to as many as 19 (boom). That will depend on the climate as a whole over the winter season. For your security, we need to re-authenticate you. Ben predicts weather-related school closures for the Hudson Valley region of New York. The snowiest March was the most recent one on the list: 2018. Who can forget the snow storm of March 7th, 2018? That’s more than last winter. Based on this forecast method, the winter season could feature near or even slightly above normal snowfall in the Hudson Valley! While we know the average (historical) outcome of El Niño or La Niña as it pertains to the weather in the Hudson Valley, no El Niño or La Niña is average. Ben Noll @BenNollWeather #HudsonValley : this was the 3rd warmest Thanksgiving Day on record, with a high temperature of at least 62 degrees Only 2004/2007 (65 degrees) and 1999 (66 degrees) were warmer since records began 90 years ago. Mr. Noll’s passion for meteorology was influenced by his father, … Speaking of last winter, do you remember what happened? Now: the models. View Ben Noll’s profile on LinkedIn, the world’s largest professional community. You can think of the weather like the clothes you choose to wear in a given week. If you made it this far, congratulations! As a point of reference, the long-term annual average for the Hudson Valley is about 40 inches. As of this writing, Halloween is in 2 weeks, Thanksgiving in 6, and Christmas in 10. The most recent La Niña event was in late 2017 and early 2018, which featured a very snowy March after a fairly average December-February. I’ve got the scoop on the weather for the next week. In other words, as we maximize predictability on the weather time scale (inside of a week), the focus of meteorologists, climatologists, and data scientists is shifting to longer time horizons, on the scale of weeks to months. In a milder week, you could forget the accessories and opt for a sweatshirt instead. Anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have an impact on the atmosphere. The ENSO phase is a good starting place for a climate outlook, but it is far from the finish line. Heads up! I’m quite proud to have a small role in such a project right now. Hello there! On the other hand, 3 of the 8 years (less than half) had above normal precipitation. Ben Noll is a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water and … This isn't a weather forecast, it's a climate outlook. You first have to understand who is at the wheel of Mother Nature’s car before you can predict where it will go. Your support covers his time spent keeping his followers (like you!) This site uses cookies. Based on the color shading in our corner of the country, it looks like the Northeast would be a bit less susceptible to coastal snow storms and more likely to experience storms from the west. Jan 3: 2: Share . One way of communicating the most likely state of the climate for the winter season is something I call a quadrant climate chart. After some more warmth, The Hudson Valley is likely to get at least a taste of this before Halloween , Temperatures as a difference from normal, 17-27 October. Seasonal climate predictability can also be gleaned from air pressure patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean, polar patterns relating to sea ice, stratospheric winds above the equator, ocean temperature anomalies along the U.S. coastlines, ocean temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean, the solar cycle, and a tropical weather cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. El Niño and La Niña make up the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” or ENSO for short. You’ve probably heard of climate phenomena like “El Niño” or “La Niña” but unless you’re a science teacher or a weather enthusiast you probably don’t know what they mean. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. . Each year I grapple with whether to do something short or long. My take? Check out some of the videos Ben has been a part of, including Ben Explains What a Meteorologist is, What Ben Noll means to Washingtonville High School, an interview with Wallkill Broadcast School, Ben Noll: New York to New Zealand, and A Day in the Life of Ben Noll. Anomalies, or deviations from the norm, in the Walker Circulation have flow on effects to air pressure patterns not just in the tropics but across the mid-latitudes, including the United States. The entrée might be served early next week ... As always, you can follow me on Twitter for additional updates on the situation! Short but sharp cold snaps will be followed up by mild air, Probably more snow than last year (not hard to do, I know! This colder air can sweep into the Northeast from time to time, but can quickly be replaced by warmer air from the southwest. Jan 28: 11: 1: Share . There are about a dozen well-known (in the weather world) seasonal climate models. On the other hand, climate outlooks can provide the most likely weather themes (i.e. upper air, surface). I grew up … If you found this post useful, please consider a small donation. The analog forecast method will feature in my Hudson Valley outlook this year. ENSO is a natural cycle of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Take home message? Hello Hudson Valley! informed and safe. If we don’t have weather forecasting in spades, we are darn close. November-March snowfall during the analog years ranged from 21 to 70 inches with an average of 47 inches. Warmer tropical seas are a focal point for rising air, causing rain, thunderstorms, and clouds. For winter 2020-21, we have La Niña conditions. Noll’s Nostradamus-like forecasts have earned him more than 44,000 Twitter followers, and the snow day has always been his bread and butter. The model guidance is less optimistic than the analogs when it comes to our snowfall chances this winter. Said differently: meteorologists make predictions, but are not prophets. See the complete profile on LinkedIn and discover Ben’s connections and … It was the epic Blizzard of 1996, which dropped four feet of snow and shut down schools for weeks, that sparked Noll’s own interest in meteorology. I presented an educational video on ENSO at my job in New Zealand. That is to say, each ENSO event is unique and takes on a slightly different flavor. ). In 2020, our climate models even predict seasonal snowfall. Analog years are determined by looking into (and matching) the ENSO phase as well as the other climate drivers that are expected to play an important role in the upcoming season. The utility of this analysis depends on model accuracy — fortunately, it was, except for Alaska, where it was too warm, which means we should take caution in the strong indication that the upcoming winter will be colder than last winter there. This post is pretty long. The changes in ocean temperatures arise from variations in the trade winds that blow in the tropical latitudes. Ben Noll. The year before that, it was mid-November. This could involve a department store having a larger or smaller stock of snowblowers based on climate expectations. El Niño is the warm phase of the phenomenon, during which ocean temperatures from South America to the central Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. January was the most consistently snowy month, with 7 inches in the least-snowy year. If you are finding these updates helpful, consider grabbing some merch or giving a small donation. Ben Noll. Twitter may be the ultimate land of hot takes, cancel culture, and viral memes. It isn’t crystal ball gazing or witchcraft. I post these types of models posted on my Twitter feed from time to time, with colorful depictions of pressure, temperature, rain, and snow. 17K likes. Ben Noll. Maddy Fulton | Monroe, NY | March 7th, 2018. The 2011-12 snow season comes with an asterisk. The home for Hudson Valley weather and school predictions from Ben Noll. Why does ENSO matter to the Hudson Valley? I live in Walden NY and really appreciate your keeping up with our weather patterns from your side of the world. 7 out of 8 analog years had at least 33 inches of snow from November-March. Don’t have time to read the whole thing? It could also be a farmer preparing him or herself for a drought. That means we can look for La Niña events in the recent past as a starting point for identifying analogs. It can be useful in identifying broad themes: does the model expect more or less snow in a certain part of the country? Click the link we sent to , or click here to log in. This was a low snowfall winter for the Hudson Valley with just 23 inches. 11 The same comparison can be done for precipitation. Thank you , Donations: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=UZBXYEUA89SPC&source=url, Merch: https://teespring.com/stores/bennollweather. I won’t go through all of these, but it showcases the multidemensionality and complexity of long-range prediction. During a colder than average winter week, you’ll probably be wearing a hat, gloves, scarf, and a heavy jacket. If you are finding these updates helpful, consider … The blue shades appearing well to our west likely indicate a stronger-than-normal polar jet stream, which can transport colder air from Alaska and Canada across the northern tier of states. Temperatures were unseasonably mild. To find out more, read our, This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. The top image shows the prediction for winter 2019-2020 from October and the bottom image shows what happened . Snow was only about half of the long-term normal (around 20 inches), depending on your location. SST stands for “sea surface temperature”. While an outlook months into the future may seem better suited for a soothsayer, it’s based firmly upon science and data. A native of New York’s Hudson Valley, Ben continues to serve his home region with up-to-date forecasts and weather-related school closing predictions. It could also involve the strategic placement of goods, like rock salt, in regions that are expecting a rougher winter season. I dream of where we’ll be by 2040 and take pride in playing a small role in advancing the science. One way I like illustrating possible year-to-year differences is by taking the model guidance ahead of last winter and subtracting it from the model guidance from the same time this year. Jan 24: 2: Share . For late winter, 2007-08 and 1999-00 are preferred, which gives 11 inches in February and 4 in March. I’m in my element with this post. The diagram below shows the typical Walker Circulation setup during La Niña. Last year, the first snow fell at the start of December. Here’s the executive summary: once snow ends early Monday morning, the rest of the working week is looking decent. The second circle is the average of the analog years, which, compared to last year, is not as warm and a little less dry — pretty close to average, actually. Last winter had slightly less precipitation than normal in the Hudson Valley, so if this one turned out to have a bit more, it would be a change year-on-year. The patterns of stormy and calm weather across the global tropics represent the Walker Circulation. On the other hand, the Northwest, Rockies, and Canada are looking like: ️, How did this product do last year? That doesn’t sound counterintuitive, does it? Rich datasets are seeing their potential realized by things like machine learning applications and artificial intelligence to push the boundaries of modern predictability. Ben Noll’s Twitter account allows the meterologist to give up-to-the-minute updates to his followers. So sit back, grab a cup of your favorite beverage, and get ready to learn about the ins and outs of a long range outlook and what the Hudson Valley might expect to see this coming winter! A majority of the analog years (5 out of 8) had below average winter temperatures. Based on the current status of the ocean-atmosphere system, these models predict general circulation patterns (large scale air flow) out 6 to 12 months. For early winter, the best analogs are 2017-18, 2013-14, 2011-12, 2008-09, and 2007-08 which yield an inch in November, 13 in December, and 11 in January. The Hudson Valley received 10 to 20 inches with a localized maximum of more than 2 feet in Monroe, Orange County! If you’re just after the key messages, here you go…. That year had the 2011 Halloween nor’easter, producing around 9 inches in the Hudson Valley. This first map shows predicted winter 2019-20 temperatures from October 2019 minus predicted winter 2020-21 temperatures from October 2020. Ben Noll is a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research in Auckland, New Zealand. Meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle with the seasons classified by three month periods with the most similar temperatures. For winter 2020, we will experience La Niña conditions. These images have been created using climate model data from the Copernicus Data Store. February had the largest spread in snowfall (4 to 38 inches) with an average of 13 inches and March averaged a non-negligible 9 inches. As for predicting Hudson Valley snow days, I’ll still be with you every step of the way this year, but the meaning of a snow day is, well, different in 2020…, I hope you had fun reading the winter “tea leaves” with me. Before going into the next section, it is worth mentioning that to a meteorologist or climatologist, winter is the months of December through February. And after all that, it is time to get to the meat and potatoes of this post. That means it’s time for one of my favorite write-ups of the year: the Hudson Valley winter outlook! It doesn’t support a significantly colder than average winter across the wider Northeast and Hudson Valley, but this doesn’t mean that it can’t snow! Please, https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=UZBXYEUA89SPC&source=url, https://teespring.com/stores/bennollweather. Ben Noll is a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research in Auckland, New Zealand. However, let’s keep in mind that none of the winters broke records for total winter snowfall! The accuracy of this particular field, called “snowfall anomaly”, is dependent on the accuracy of the pressure patterns that the model is predicting. What Ben Noll means to Washingtonville High School. Weather forecasts can provide precise details about what conditions to expect over the next few days. Do you remember? ❄️, Snowfall (inches) during the analog years. I hope you are having a good weekend. Many sectors contract services for long range outlooks to help with planning, decision making, and strategy. wetter/drier/milder/colder) in the coming weeks to months. Who is Ben Noll? Since many folks are able to recall last winter, it can be a useful comparison. a general idea of prevailing weather patterns) but skill declines thereafter as the influence of the initial conditions that are fed into the model wane. It doesn’t mean that we’ll nail the outlook every season, but an understanding of climate tendencies, in broad strokes, months in advance is within the realm of our predictive powers. During a winter season, you’ll inevitably need a hat, gloves, a scarf, a heavy jacket, and a sweatshirt, but will you wear the sweatshirt more than the heavy jacket? We can’t tell you what the weather will be like on your wedding day six months months from now, exactly what it will be like on Christmas Day, or if it will rain exactly at 4:00 pm on Friday. Green (orange) = cooler (warmer) than average sea temperatures. Quite well, actually! It’s fair to say that organizations pay a pretty penny for such predictions in 2020 with the increasing hit rates of long-range guidance and our ever-growing understanding of the climate system. If we could, we’d be driving much nicer cars! I’ve circled the part of the chart that includes last winter’s data point: it was mild and slightly on the drier side. Ben Noll @BenNollWeather Snow, where did you go? You can read more about the difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons in my post here. Here, we see that more precipitation than last winter is predicted over the Northwest, Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast. Where has 2020 gone?! Fishkill became a “fish” emoji followed by the word “kill,” Pine Bush began with a tree emoji, and so on (check out his shortcut for Newburgh; it’s funny! Centuries ago, long-range prediction was the relative guesswork of climate soothsayers. Twitter Facebook Instagram merch About Weather. While many are probably aware that I live in New Zealand, some of you may be surprised to learn that I do my Hudson Valley forecasts from 8,500+ miles away! Speaking of October, the nation’s midsection is about to plunge straight into winter with cold and snow coming for places like the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest through the end of the month. Noll’s followers look forward to his creative predictions: Thanks to Twitter’s early limits on tweet length, Noll developed clever shortcuts for the school districts. They provide an indication on snowfall anomalies during the coming months but ultimately are a function of the accuracy of the predicted climate pattern (e.g. At the same time, less precipitation is forecast across California, the Southeast, and Florida, which indicates a persistent ridge of high pressure in that part of the country. Known as “The Weatherman” in his middle school and high school days, Mr. Noll was no exception. The models certainly aren’t bashful in that prediction either with multiple tiers of below normal shown. Ben has 7 jobs listed on their profile. In New Zealand, this is what I do for a living: assess long range weather and climate patterns to help people plan for impactful events like drought, hurricanes, and heatwaves. Hello everyone! Where the seas are cooler, subsidence (sinking air) is more likely, bringing sunny and rain-free conditions. Also, we can only attribute up to about 25% of our climate variability to ENSO during winter. I don’t charge for my forecasts and don’t intend to, but small contributions help cover computer programming, forecasting, and writing time. For this year, a blend of our two best seasonal models isn’t keen on above normal snowfall in the Northeast. It isn’t the deciding factor in my outlook, but it is an interesting piece to consider. So the snow this week, well, may have just been an appetizer. ‍♂️ ️ ‍♂️ Snowfall in Orange, Dutchess, Ulster & Sullivan was 40-60% of normal Snowfall in Rockland & Westchester was 20-40% of normal Some schools had no weather-related delays or closings in January & February! It caused some pretty wild scenes! The most recent analog year (2017-18) had winter temperatures that were slightly below average along with slightly less precipitation than normal. Since finding an exact match is not a typical occurrence, one technique is to create a composite, or blend, of several analog years. You can think of the climate like the contents of your wardrobe. Ben Noll on Twitter “Maximum wave heights in New Zealand offshore waters are forecast to be 70+ feet (‼️) --the largest on Earth-- on Friday as another Antarctic cold front blasts in … If you'd like to be added to weekly forecast emails for the Hudson Valley, sign up here or reach out to Ben at bennollweather@gmail.com. La Niña conditions are indicated by the tongue of colder than average water (blue color) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. A native of New York’s Hudson Valley, Ben continues to serve his home region with up-to-date forecasts and weather-related school closing predictions. The effect of La Niña and El Niño is distinctively different. Ben Noll. For the much of the U.S., except the Upper Midwest, Plains, and Northwest, this map can be interpreted as “the upcoming winter should be about as mild as last.”. Stormy weather tends to occur over a warm pool of ocean water in the western Pacific Ocean. Wow - Ben, you put the winter forecast into laymens' terms that even I can almost understand. By blending the years together, it can be determined if a season is more likely to be mild, cold, rainy, snowy, or dry. These sophisticated simulations run on supercomputers at global producing centers like NOAA, Environment Canada, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, and more. It suggests that colder temperatures, compared to last winter, will be found in places like the Dakotas, Minnesota, Montana, Washington, and Oregon. ... Ben Noll. Now, its advancement sits on the leading edge of climate science. I hope you feel a little more informed about the process a forecaster goes through to make a long-range prediction and that you have something to talk about at the dinner table tonight. One additional year is an “honorable mention” — 1988-89. If we take away the least snowy (2011-12) and most snowy (2013-14) seasons, we’re left with an average of 46 inches or about 6 inches above normal. If several analog years have a similar climatic flavor, it would be apparent in the analog composite (average). Storms that track in from or to the west of the Hudson Valley tend to drag up warmer air from the south before they arrive or come with milder air from the Pacific Ocean. This year, I went with the latter so that folks could appreciate the process.

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